In 2016, the California Legislature enacted a law increasing the minimum wage in steps over a period of years.  After reaching $15/hour, the law ties the minimum wage to the U.S. Consumer Price Index. Currently, California’s minimum wage is $16/hour, making it one of the highest minimum wages in the country, and more than double the federal minimum wage.

Tomorrow, California voters will have the opportunity to vote on another increase in the State’s minimum wage. If passed, Proposition 32 will increase it to $18/hour over the next two years. Employers with 26 or more employees would begin paying $18/hour on January 1, 2025. Employers with 25 or fewer employees would begin paying $17/hour on January 1, 2025, and $18/hour on January 1, 2026. After reaching $18, the minimum wage again would be tied to the Consumer Price Index.

Even if Proposition 32 does not pass, employers can expect to see a minimum wage increase on January 1, 2025, because the current law ties the minimum wage to inflation. Of course, some employees already earn a higher minimum wage than the increase proposed in the ballot measure, such as some fast-food workers and healthcare workers.

Although the supporters of Proposition 32 argue that the increase is necessary because the minimum wage does not keep pace with the cost of living, opponents of the ballot measure, especially business owners still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, see it as yet another burden that will ultimately be passed on to customers in the form of higher prices.

In a recent statewide survey conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, “[l]ikely voters are divided on this citizens’ initiative, with 44 percent saying they would vote yes and 54 percent saying they would vote no. In September, support was slightly higher (50% yes, 49% no).”

Like everything else this Election Day, no one can accurately predict whether voters will adopt Proposition 32. Stay tuned!